Analysis: The UK regions set to be hit hardest by Trump’s tariffs

The tariffs will raise the price of British goods for American consumers, reducing demand. The West Midlands, East of England and Northern Ireland – regions most reliant on exports to the US – are expected to bear the brunt of the trade restrictions. In the West Midlands the estimated fall in export value is expected to be over £330m per year, based on 2024 figures, confirming expectations that the region – the “number one exporting region” of cars to the US – would be hardest hit.

In the East of England, an area which exports significant goods from the pharmaceuticals, life sciences, aerospace and defence sectors, the fall is likely to be nearly £240m per year, assuming an even mix of products exported across regions. Adjusted for population, the value of lost exports in Northern Ireland is expected to be over £40 per person per year. In London, meanwhile, the estimated fall in export value is estimated at £220m per year, or just over £25 per person.

Using Bank of England estimates for price elasticity, the average fall in UK exports to the US is estimated at around 4% if tariffs are imposed at the planned level of 10%. The specific impact will depend on the composition of goods exported, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, and shifts in US consumer purchasing power.

“These tariffs, and the associated supply chain effects, will have a real impact on businesses and jobs in parts of the UK which are already highly vulnerable to economic shocks” said Julian Boys, Associate Director of Economic Strategy at CLES. “For regions where the US is a key trade partner, the fallout in terms of investment and employment could be serious.”

Data tables and maps can be found below. Analysis was conducted using HMRC data on the UK’s exports by region. This provides UK regional exports to North America, of which the USA makes up 89% according to official bilateral trade data. Bank of England research was used for estimates of export elasticity. Population data by region is from ONS. Further details are available on request.